First we selected clubs that seem to have established as very dominant in their own league,
and thus will most likely qualify for next editions of Champions league (row C).
Then we labeled an average chance for these selected clubs to stay on top (row D).
Since having selected three clubs for England (for only four CL-spots), it is obvious that
the average chance for Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea is much lower than for Bayern Munich.
Being the only dominant team in a strong German League gives Bayern Munich clearly a much better chance to stay
were it is.
We believe our French candidates have lowest chance (70%), since France
has only three CL-spots and French competition traditionally is very unpredictable.
Next we tried to label the runners up we feel have the best chance to establish as
a dominant club in their league and new qualifications for Champions League (row E).
Then, in order being able to calculate an average chance for each runner up (row F), we
first had to quantify the chance that some other club will emerge (row G).
In England in our opinion this chance is much lower than in Germany and France
(20% versus 50% respectively). Keep in mind that we all together selected 7 clubs from England,
only 5 from Germany.
Finally we were able to calculate the chance for selected runners up to establish (row F).
It is to note these are average chances.
Our German runners up now seem to have a by far better chance to establish as a dominating
club (average 64%) than for example our selected French candidates (average 45%).
This however is logical, since Bundesliga clubs have the big advantage that still only Bayern
Munich has established as a "big untouchable" (and therefore was labeled a chance of 95%).
German average for runners up of 64% will split up about 80%/75%/70%/30% over Borussia
Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke 04 and Borussia München Gladbach.
Finally reaching conclusions for Borussia Dortmund, this soccer club now is in our view splendidly positioned to establish in top of German football.
And given the
emerging power of Bundesliga in general, therefore almost automatically will be able to establish in top of European football.
Of course Borussia Dortmund in current edition of Champions League "group of death" very much underlines its competitive edge.
PG, October, 12 2012